The 2020 presidential election is five weeks away, although many of us have already voted in an election that many consider a referendum on America’s existence as a democratic republic and its survival.
Democratic contender Joe Biden, a longtime Senator and former Vice President, squares off against embattled incumbent Donald Trump Tuesday night in the first of what are three scheduled presidential debate as Republicans in the Senate attempt a last-minute push to put a third hard-core conservative onto the Supreme Court in an election year act that the same party four years ago insisted should not happen or be allowed.
And media outlets around the country showcase a New York Times investigation that shows Trump evaded taxes in 11 recent years and paid just $750 in 2016 and 3017 while engaging in questionable actions under investigation by the Internal Revenue Service while mired deep in debt that security officials say make shim vulnerable and a threat to national security.
Plus, the Times investigation shows, the man who sold the nation a fake image of a successful businessman and self-made “billionaire” is nothing more than a con artist who used millions of dollars from a television network that made him a “reality TV” star before his dumping him after his rating tanked, sank nearly all the money into hotels and golf courses that has lost millions and are now drowning in debts with more than $400 million comes due over the next four years while he has only about $800,000 in securities and usable cash. His net worth may not even be a million dollars, let along billions.
Beginning today, and on each day until the election — and afterwards if it is contested — we will be providing a daily analysis of polls and analysis of where the campaign stands and what new has happened in the race.
Tuesday morning begins with a new battleground state poll showing Biden leading trump in the crucial battleground state of Pennsylvania with the former vice president holding large leads in Philadelphia and its suburbs and holds strong in the western part of the state.
Biden’s support stands at 54 percent to Trump’s 45 percent among the Keystone State’s likely voters and 54 percent to 44 percent among its registered voters. Biden’s current edge among likely voters appears sizable but is not definitive, given the five-point margin of error that applies to each candidate’s support. Other polls of Pennsylvania this month have found Biden leading Trump by an average of eight points.
Trump’s overall approval rating in the state among registered voters is 43 percent positive and 55 percent negative, with 49 percent saying they disapprove “strongly.” Statewide, women voters also are core to Biden’s support, favoring him by 23 points, while Trump holds a narrow seven-point edge among men.
The daily roundup of polls by The New York Times shows the race “teetering between a landslide and a tight race” that favors Biden.
The average of polls shows Joe Biden with a seven-point lead nationwide, giving him the largest lead of any candidate at this stage since Bill Clinton in 1996. He also has a consistent, if usually more modest, advantage across the battleground states.
If polling averages today translated perfectly to election results on Nov. 3 — and they won’t, it’s worth repeating — Mr. Biden would win nearly 360 electoral votes. If he outperforms the polls, he could win more than 400 electoral votes in the largest electoral landslide since 1988. That’s a real possibility.
But so many battleground states are close enough that the president’s re-election hopes are still alive. If he outperforms the polls as he did four years ago, he could certainly win.
It might seem odd for a landslide and a competitive race to seem so realistic. But consider this: Mr. Biden is closer in our poll average to winning Texas, which would get him over 400 electoral votes, than President Trump is to winning in traditional battleground states like Pennsylvania and Nevada.
This is how it looks five weeks, to the day, until election day.
Copyright © 2020 Capitol Hill Blue