As the ever-expanding impeachment inquiry of Donald Trump’s corrupt presidency continues to give more and more Americans most reasons to vote for someone else in next year’s presidential election, a new poll shows the three Democratic contenders for their party’s nomination have double digit leads over the troubled incumbent.
Former vice president Joe Biden lads by 17 percentage points, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass) is up by 15 points Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 14.
This latest Washington Post-ABC News poll shows 58 percent of voters in America disapprove of Trump with only 7 percent supporting him.
The new poll shows more and more independent voters — the voting bloc that could decide the election — are shifting away from Trump.
If this trend continues, the eventual Democratic nominee for president could top Hillary Clinton’s three-million vote popular vote margin over Trump in 2016 but American presidential elections are decided in the electoral college and the race remains close in Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — the swing states that gave him the upset win in the election three years ago.
That means Trump’s path to victory next year is to replicate the electoral college majority he fashioned by narrowly winning Florida, North Carolina and three states that had long been Democratic presidential strongholds — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — while easily winning Ohio and Iowa, which had been swing states in recent elections.
State-specific polls often have shown Trump’s job approval rating higher than it is nationally, pointing to the challenges for Democrats in their efforts to win back the White House next year. Though the president is not in a comfortable position heading into the election, Democrats still could have limited options and some obstacles to winning an electoral college majority regardless of the popular vote.
Overall, these results are low for an incumbent president, but Trump proved that he could overcome them in 2016 and his allies think he can do so again in 2020.
Thus far in the campaign, Trump has worked to enthuse his past supporters rather than try to extend his reach beyond already-loyal elements of the electorate. But the poll shows he is faring worse now than in 2016 election polls among non-college white voters as well as political independents, both groups that helped power his victory. In 2016, he won non-college whites by a 36-point margin, according to a Pew Research Center analysis, but he leads Biden by half that — 18 points — among registered voters in this group in the latest Post-ABC poll.
Trump narrowly won self-identified independents in 2016 (46 percent to 42 percent) according to the National Election Pool exit poll, but in the latest Post-ABC poll he trails Biden by 17 points among this group.
Trump also receives less unified support among Republican voters — 80 percent in the current poll compared with 88 percent in the 2016 exit poll. Based on recent elections, Trump would expect to gain support among Republicans through the course of a reelection campaign.
It is also important to remember that we are still a year away from the election. A lot can, and probably will, change in the next 12 months but the primary “wild card” this time is the impeachment. While public hearings are expected to build a stronger case on his corruption, he still will be tried in a GOP controlled Senate that falls more than 20 votes short of a removal from office.
Failure in the impeachment trial could spur support for Trump, even if the facts suggest history will portray him as one of the most corrupt presidents in American history.
In America today, facts no longer matter. A disturbing number of voters respond more to hype and their president of choice is the master of hyperbole — Donald John Trump.
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