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May 9, 2008 - 9:48pm
Both ABC News and the New York Times report today on their web sites that Senator Barack Obama leads in the number of superdelegates who have stated they support his candidacy. Senator Obama now leads by every conceiveable measure. It now is arithmetically impossible for her to win more states. She would have to pull in 77% of remaining "pledged" or "elected" delegates to pass Senator Obama in that category. Her largest margin even in the popular vote to date in any state was her 70% margin in Arkansas. The next two largest wins were 58% in Rhode Island and 57% in her adoptive state of New York. Not even in West Virginia is she approaching 77%. So while not yet arithmetically impossible, it is logically a lost cause. Senator Obama passed Senator Clinton in Congressional support this week as well, with several members of Congress declaring their intentions on both sides but one fork a trickle and the other a healthy stream. Thus we lay to rest this, the final claim, that Senator Hillary Clinton enjoyed the support of more superdelegates. She has seen her margin in this area dwindle from about 100 in January to about 60 on Super Tuesday, to single digits or even a deficit today. She would have to find a way to stem the tide in this last bastion of dominance to be able to claim even this measure of preferance; among voters or among her peers. That simply is not going to happen. Coupled with her increasingly large campaign debt and the ample fuel she is adding to the Republican arsenal for the general election by continuing to question Senator Obama's fitness for the Oval Office, these final barriers in the convention pathway would make your average politician swallow hard and cry uncle. Apparently, Senator Clinton's parents had no brothers. To her increasingly great discredit, she apparently does not know any uncles. Except Uncle Sam, Hillary. Do it for him.
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Thanks, 33rd! Best news
Submitted by DejaVuAllOver on May 10, 2008 - 3:56pm.Thanks, 33rd! Best news I've heard all week.
DITTO !
Submitted by bryan mcclellan on May 10, 2008 - 8:52pm.DITTO !
You said: "It now is
Submitted by Ted Remington on May 11, 2008 - 12:01am.You said:
"It now is arithmetically impossible for her to win more states."
I assume that "her" refers to Hillary Clinton. What do you mean by this statement, since it is certainly not supported by any facts that I am aware of? It is most assuredly arithmetically possible for her to win more states. She certainly has a hefty lead in WV, for example.
And while the odds are against her, it is certainly possible for Hillary to claim the nomination. One stumble by Obama and the wolves will tear him limb from limb and he will end up as politically dead as YeeeeeeeeeeeHaaaaaaa Dean.
And that, I believe, is why Hillary stays in the race. Obama is unquestionably a good politician, a man with brains, dignity, charisma, common sense, good looks (I guess, since male types don't appeal to me), etc., but he, like the rest of them, has to be tired, and it's usually when you're tired that you screw up.
Ted
I will try to be more
Submitted by 33rdSt on May 11, 2008 - 7:35am.I will try to be more precise: Even if Hillary Clinton wins all remaining states, Hillary Clinton cannot end the primary/caucus season with victories in more states than Barack Obama has won.
And yes, I share your analysis that "she" has become more vulture than Democrat; that personal glory, however unlikely, has become more important to "her" than a Democratic victory in November. A very sad state of affairs for a person whom I have long admired and respected. I really do hate to see her go out on this note. Look for a challenge in the primary in NY in 2010. Look for "her" to duck it for a fat-cat lobbying job.
As for being as politically dead as the Chairman of the Democratic National Committee, Governor Dean has been very much alive and formulated the 50-state strategy that has been the cornerstone of Senator Obama's victory in the nomination process. Pretty good leadership for a corpse.