Crisis provides real life test for candidates
September 20, 2008 - 4:57am.
The financial crisis has turned into a tryout of sorts for the next president, an unexpected chance for Barack Obama and John McCain to shine — or stumble — just as most voters are deciding whom to back.
At times like these, when the real world intrudes on the carefully controlled campaigns, the spotlight shines even brighter on the presidential candidates. Their responses and postures may tell voters more about how they would act if elected than allegations of lies in advertising and quips about lipstick on pigs.
Both have got some work to do.
"People are confused, they're scared and they're angry, and neither of these guys is providing the security, maturity and experience to be able to calm those fears," says Joe Gaylord, a Republican consultant. "If these candidates can rise out of their campaign mode and get into the president-of-all-the-country mode, people would feel more comfortable."
The trick for each is not to look like he's trying to score cheap political points off a crisis.
Last month, Russia's invasion of Georgia provided a taste of how outside events can affect the presidential race. McCain seemed to hit his stride more quickly than Obama. In the financial meltdown, the opposite has been true.
Between now and Nov. 4, any number of other domestic or foreign events could intervene. For now, all attention has swung to the financial crisis that has spread worldwide. Despite Friday's major actions by the federal government, even more economic troubles could be ahead, putting additional pressure on both Obama and McCain to map out solutions and prove they can handle adversity.
Both men are treading carefully as they use the Wall Street chaos not only to sell their economic plans but also to try to sound and act presidential before a nervous nation seeking leadership.
On Friday, Obama struck a stately stance as he acknowledged "difficult days" and said: "This is not the time for fear or panic. This is a time for resolve and for leadership. I know we can steer ourselves out of this crisis. That's who we are. That's what we've always done as Americans."
After fumbling earlier in the week, McCain's remarks had a more partisan edge. He claimed Obama "profited from this system of abuse and scandal" — even as he said: "It took members of both parties to get America into this mess, and it will take all of us, working together, to lead the way out."
For now at least, the campaigns have returned to issues and substance after weeks of clashes over personalities and characters. Each candidate has accused the other of lying in campaign commercials, and there was a dispute over whether Obama was insulting GOP vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin when he used the phrase putting "lipstick on a pig."
"The real world was always going to re-exert itself because there are big problems," said Bob Shrum, a Democratic veteran of several presidential campaigns. "Voters were having a lark but now they're saying to themselves, what's going happen to me and my life and my family in the next four years, and who is best to lead the country."
Thus, mistakes are magnified.
Take McCain.
As markets tumbled Monday following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and the takeover of Merrill Lynch, the Arizona senator — who has acknowledged that economics is not his strongest suit — made his oft-repeated assertion that "the fundamentals of our economy are strong." Democrats swiftly assailed him, tagging him as out of touch and a continuation of President Bush.
McCain has spent the days since trying to explain what he meant and, with a more dire tone, letting voters know that he feels their pain. Now, he's calling the financial woes "one of the most severe crises in modern times," says he would fire the Securities and Exchange Commission chairman if he were president, and advocates creating a special trust to help strengthen weak institutions.
All week, McCain has struggled to square his current calls for tighter regulation of financial markets with his decades-old support of deregulation.
Obama, meanwhile, has smoothly hit his main points, empathizing with working-class people and blaming Washington.
He huddled with a team of seasoned economic advisers in Florida on Friday, and had planned to outline a series of prescriptions. But he emerged from the meeting to announce he would hold off for now in deference to those dealing directly with the crisis, saying their work should be "unimpeded by partisan wrangling."
The candidates' roles were reversed in August when Russia sent troops and tanks into the former Soviet state of Georgia.
That overseas event ricocheted off the U.S. presidential campaign, as foreign relations and national security — historically Republican strengths — rose to the surface.
McCain quickly took a hardline stand against Russia, seeking to show prowess in dealing with an international crisis.
Obama was initially cautious. He called for diplomacy and restraint on all sides.
Republicans chastised him for not sounding tough enough, and Obama labored to find the right balance.
A few days later, his position hardened markedly as he called for a Russian cease-fire and said, "Now is the time for action — not just words."
That situation reverberated on the campaign trail for about a week.
There's no formula for how long a current event remains, well, a current part of the campaign.
And, it's hard to predict just how big an event has to be for candidates to care.
Wednesday's attack on the U.S. Embassy in Yemen, for instance, hardly registered. Both candidates simply issued statements.
In 2004, war and terrorism were injected into the campaign's final weekend — a videotaped message from Osama bin Laden surfaced and eight U.S. Marines died in Iraq. Bush barely beat Democrat John Kerry.
And, forty years ago, Lyndon B. Johnson stopped bombing North Vietnam and pressed for peace negotiations — just days before voters narrowly chose Republican Richard Nixon over Democrat Hubert Humphrey.
There are six weeks left to go.
___
Liz Sidoti covers the presidential campaign for The Associated Press and has covered national politics since 2003.
Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press
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Yeah, wow...stop the
Yeah, wow...stop the presses...tear out page one...two professional liars are getting ready to tell us all the good things they're going to do for us.
FREE AMERICA
REVOLUTIONARY (DIRECT) DEMOCRACY
In my reading many news
In my reading many news sites and watching many news TV shows, it is time to nail all the lies told by both parties. I think we all know the basic ideals of the Democratic Party but something very sour has shown up in the Republican Party in the last 8 years (probably longer). Under the shadow of "family values" the GOP has turned into a government of social laws over the Bill of Rights. The emphasis on bringing the personal standards up and ignoring the economics, academics and the value of the American dollar has been swallowed up with wars for power and oil.
As a husband and father of 3, I am insulted that my government is no longer taking my citizenship seriously. The actions from the White House in the last 8 years (probably longer) has damaged our security, stability and freedoms.
This election is more than pitting two liars against each other. Our future as a free nation is at stake. I cannot honesty support either party or candidate.
Malcolm
Well stated Malcolm and as a
Well stated Malcolm and as a father of two boys I agree with most of your statement. I believe the Democrats ideals are shifting as well. Faith-based programs ring a bell?
The economy is "run" by the
The economy is "run" by the Fed and Treasury with little or no congressional oversight. Neither entity is accountable to anyone but their masters.
Setting aside the fact that the government shouldn't be be involved so heavily in private enterprise, no one in Congress or the White House have any idea what is going on or how to fix it.
They aren't economists - they are bureaucrats - and they'll do what bureaucrats always do. Protect their friends and lay everything at the feet of the middle class taxpayer.
One thing's for certain - it's going to be one long and troublesome winter - with plenty more suffering for the average American.
Spot on Griff! The only
Spot on Griff!
The only candidate who has proven to understand our economics is Dr. Ron Paul. Without this kind of leadership, I fear we are doomed as a strong and viable nation. I see nothing coming from the LP.
Malcolm
The problem started about 25
The problem started about 25 years ago. It started gaining steam when the repigs took over congress in the 90s. As it turns out Phil Gramm(ex sen R Tx)in the 90s and who was the chair of the senate banking cmte had a lot to do with the current meltdown-does anyone really still think that we will be able to go back to our old consumer credit driven society in a few months?-back in the day(1998) he slipped a 262 page bill into a massive must pass measure.Gramms secret bill, mostly written by lobbyists, essentially removed from any regulation some new fangled financial products called "swaps"
While derivatives-another unregulated financial instrument- have had a great deal to do with the current financial tsumnami, so have the "swaps".
Banks took both prime and subprime mortgages, tore them into small pieces and recombinded them into a brand new unregulated way for institutions to make lots of money at-so they said-no risk to the buyers. So the various companies including Lehman Bros. Bear Stearns, ML,AIG, Fanny and Freddie, regional banks, foreign banks and countries bought these instruments with abandon-it was just like printing money. Then it was discovered that there was really nothing backing these "swaps" because everyone up and down the line had greenlighted anyone who wanted to buy a house(the great gwb home ownership talking point)whether or not they would be able to pay for it.
Right now the american sheeple do not really believe that the meltdown on Wall street has anything to do with them, so they continue their little sheeple credit consuming ways.
However within the next week to 10 days I believe the crisis will finally become clear to people who have not,so far, paid attention.
Loans for cars and homes along with credit to buy large ticket items will begin to dry up. Those with large balances on their credit cards will find themselves in "deep doodoo" as their interest rates will go even higher. The $$ drop in overseas markets could directly threaten our gas prices if OPEC changes to Euros from Dollars
Neither side has clean hands on this mess. It is a bubble that has been building for the last 20 years, admittedly aided and abetted by the repigs and their single minded urge to deregulate, and remove rules and regulations put in place just after the depression to prevent exactly what is happening once more.
Totally free capitalism-what the repigs want-is total anarchy with the biggest raptors eating the smaller ones and everyone totally out for themselves-kind of like China and safety regulations, no?-and if they can con someone into buying worthless paper then they will do it. Let the Buyer Beware once had real meaning. I believe that companies and their leadership that did not practice "due dilgence" should be allowed to fail.
The govt takes a different view. They caught a glimpse of the future and it quite literally scared the hell out of them. China came in to the discussion and said that if the US did not back up the mortgage companies Freddie and Fannie -they hold hundreds of billions of the freddies paper,after both companies had spent billions on the now worthless paper "swaps" and derivatives-then China just might be forced to call in all the money that they lent the govt so that gwb could fight his war while the sheeple shopped.
When other companies threatened to fall like the pack of cards that they are, the bush govt threw all their conservative principles out the window and bought/bailed out/nationalized several companies. They "nationalized" AIG because AIG is also a reinsurer with policies all over the world and it also holds paper on most of the HO insurers on the gulf coast.
What could still become the total failure of the american financial markets might have been averted.(cross your fingers, you really don't want to live thru another depression) But the hit that people will take on their 401Ks and other investments-like their house-will still be huge. Informed opinion thinks that houses could lose up to 50% of their current value within 5 years, The stock exchange could be back in the 5-7000 area rather than the hyperinflated place it holds right now.
Will either Obama or McCain be able to repair the problem? Very doubtful, they are more likely to just slap a bandaid on it and send it on down the road a few years when they are no longer in office-if either one actually possesses the guts to do the "right thing" they will not be reelected. The Iraq war adventure will have to end no matter who wins simpley because we can no longer afford the $10Billion a month that it costs to run it. Many more people will lose their health insurance if McCain wins as he wants to make health insurance taxable income. Most other social programs will take a hit because no money will exist-oh, we could print more, but how high do we wnat inflation to run. 1000%, 10,000%. More?
The current bush administration-along with congress(dems and repigs) are going to try to set up a kind of RTC-Resolution Trust Corp-like they did during the S&L crisis to buy the bad mortgages up. How much we are talking about is unclear-could be over $1Trillion, way to much for people to process.
A question comes up however. If the govt(the freddies) owns your mortgage, and you default due to the massively higher payments and your house goes into foreclosure. Will the fedgov actually kick you out of your house and put still another empty house that they can not sell on the books, or will they(we) restructure your loan at a lower fixed interest rate?
Whatever happens, the entire race for president has changed. The mantra until the election should be. Are you better off now than you were 8 years ago?
Bush was involved in the S&L
Bush was involved in the S&L crisis, and the ignorant voters put him in office so he could do it on a much larger scale. I've been expecting this for eight years. If they really wanted to do some good, they would put Bush & friends in jail where they belong. Why should the loan sharks get bailed out free of charge at taxpayer expense for being corrupt? Put them all in jail where they belong and replace them with honest institutions.
Capitalism works when all
Capitalism works when all sides are honest and open. It used to work until the two parties went to war against each other. I tend to blame the television spouting as many lies as truths. The internet has no limits on lies or truths and many of us cannot tell the difference. I am certainly included. The problem is who regulates the regulators? Both Republicans and Democrats are very close to being criminals if not crooks.
This can be a problem when the Congress will be getting 700 billion dollars to fix the problem and again we must ask that they account for every penny they receive. This class of criminals is too crooked for my taste.
It is similar to Gov. Palin accepting the millions of dollars for the bridge to nowhere and telling the congress "thanks but no thanks" That was our tax dollars that will never be a accounted for by a woman who could be our next President. If we don't ask for honesty, we do not deserve it.
Malcolm
Credit default swap. I would
Credit default swap. I would like three people to explain to me in detail and in layman's terms what that term means. These three people are Liz Sidoti, John McCain and Barack Obama. Until one or all three of them can do so then any opinions they have on the current crisis are nothing more than unadulterated bullshit, and all three should just STFU.
Kent Shaw
Kent, not until the
Kent, not until the "Monopoly" game can come with an extended level of playing, will America ever understand this game of swapping liabilities. It is now being sold to the voters as a great way for the government to make money....why am I not surprised?
Malcolm
Exactly, Malcolm, exactly.
Exactly, Malcolm, exactly. Most banking regulations implemented after the great depression were designed to, basically, prohibit fraud. Now the regulations have mostly been repealed and fraud has been perpetrated on a massive scale. And, now, the taxpayers are expected to pay for it. I am enraged. You have no idea how enraged I have become. I have literally been throwing things and screaming. If the general population could be made aware of exactly how these financial manipulations work they would be hanging the perpetrators from the nearest lamp poles. A $700 billion dollar bailout my ass. It'll be trillions. And, breaking NOW, on MSNBC, we are being told that Paulson wants to extend the "bailout" to FOREIGN BANKS. MY TAX DOLLARS ARE GOING TO BAIL OUT FOREIGN BANKS. RAGE RAGE RAGE RAGE
-- Kent Shaw
I hate being considered a
I hate being considered a dupe for my government's terrible actions. I have talked about the value of the American dollar for many years and people look at me as if I'm an alien to this world. I have lost friends when I ask them what they would do if their entire savings was worth only half of what they paid in. I was called a Communist several years ago when I was worried about the incompetance of President Bush. When I looked at his opposition, I simply wrote in Ron Paul. I really feel that Dr. Paul is the only candidate who understands this financial mess that the Dems and GOP got us into.
It is way over the heads of the LP, Green Party and certainly Chuck Baldwin's Constitution Party.
Malcolm
Sorry Liz, the blame is not
Sorry Liz, the blame is not equal. Republicans are about 80% responsible for this mess, not to mention the war in Iraq. As for character, John Sidney McCain has none. We vets know him as a collaborator who is trying to hide the truth about himself.
http://www.alternet.org/election08/99663/republica...
Both candidates should quit
Both candidates should quit telling what they would do in regards to solving this financial mess.
Until it is announced and they know just exactly what the grand poohbahs plan is, they won't even know what they are dealing with....and trust me folks it will be a whole new ballgame with different rules that they will be dealing with!
For them to offer any answers now is like a doctor giving the patient a perscription without knowing the malady.
I want to hear each explain
I want to hear each explain in detail, and in easily understood terms, what is a "credit default swap".
-- Kent Shaw
That question will never
That question will never make it through their handlers filters. Instead we'll get to ask who we should pray for like when they announced the start of fighting in Iraq.