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August 19, 2008 - 5:48am.
Almost out of nowhere, the once-ailing U.S. dollar has come storming back. That's good news on several fronts. A stronger dollar will quell simmering domestic inflation, which last month reached a worrisome 5.6 percent over July a year ago, a 17-year high. And a stronger dollar is both a cause and effect of falling oil and commodity prices. Crude oil fell 24 percent in a month. One reason for that is the "greedy speculators" that Congress likes to denounce are getting out of commodities and into dollar investments. Falling commodity prices, especially of foodstuffs, are a boon for poorer countries, and, as in the United States, will have the effect of dampening inflation in Asia and especially China, where inflation was running at over 8 percent early this year and seemed on the verge of introducing that country to the dubious joys of stagflation -- flat growth and rising prices. The strengthening dollar comes somewhat at others' expense. Japan's gross domestic product shrank in the spring quarter and so did the 15-nation euro zone's, the first contraction in its history. And the British government says it expects its economy to stagnate over the coming year. The dollar reached highs for the year against the yen and the euro -- 8 percent in the last month alone -- and has a winning streak against the pound that the Associated Press says is the longest in 37 years. The newly robust dollar represents a judgment by international markets that, as The Economist put it, "The mess in America suddenly seems less awful," and a recognition that the U.S. economy for all its problems is wonderfully resilient. Certainly the recovering dollar does not mean we can ease up our search for fuel efficiency and new energy sources. And it means attention must be paid to two other causes of a weak dollar -- the federal budget deficit and the trade deficit. There is little Congress can do about the trade deficit, and what it tries to do is usually wrong. But the budget deficit is solely its prerogative. We have a second chance in the making and it's fair to urge our lawmakers: This time, don't blow it.
Capitol Hill Blue's columnists, blogs and reader comments Capitol Hill Blue is an independent, non-partisan news site that belongs to no political party and subscribes to no political or philosophical point-of-view. Our columnists are welcome to their opinions but readers should understand that their views do not necessarily reflect the editorial policies of this web site. We also welcome comments to selected opinion columns and in our popular ReaderRant discussion forum. Please remember, however, that we believe in civility on this web site and comments may be reviewed, moderated or removed if we feel they contain obscenities, racism, bigotry, anti-Semitic remarks or attack other posters. Our goal is reasoned discussion on issues facing this nation and we do not feel that goal is served by personal attacks and by seeing how many cute adjectives you can attach to an elected official or politician's name. Copyright © 2008 Capitol Hill Blue
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Ease up our search for
Submitted by dbumRob on August 19, 2008 - 8:36am.Ease up our search for alternative fuels.
Wow.
That's about as shortsighted as saying since the sun is shining I don't need to put the roof on yet.
And just what is making the dollar robust, which this lame article fails to explain. What would be necessary for a genuine robust dollar is America making things and exporting them, so that it would add actual value to that dollar. And even if there is a spike in services beings exported, it would need a long term maintenance of that level to actually boost the economy, and we just don't have enough of that to accomplish such a revival.
As for little that Congress can do to effect the trade deficit. Hmm. I wonder if you ever did study econ or poli sci. Policies not affect the deficit? I suppose you don't know what NAFTA is. And believe me, I vaguely recall my econ class with Prof. Taylor, but I've read enough to know that Congress can definitely affect the deficit, that there is no time to ease in our search for alternatuive energy sources....
What?! Search for?! I have to wonder what planet you live on. I can name five right now: wind, solar, geothermal, wave and tide. All of which we already have "found" and could be and are used, though not as extensively in the US because of the current sleeping arrangements between Big Oil and Congress.
This was one poorly written(I hope) article. I can hope that the author isn't as poorly informed as the article suggests.
Or making policy decisions.
As we speak, the buck is
Submitted by Hoosier_CowBoy on August 19, 2008 - 3:01pm.As we speak, the buck is taking a slide. It just shows that at the speed of light, the relativistic distortions predicted by Einstein are valid.
Markets now travel at light speed, at light speed the static universe goes from beginning to end in a heartbeat.
"And just what is making the
Submitted by ekaton on August 19, 2008 - 8:12pm."And just what is making the dollar robust, which this lame article fails to explain."
Foreign central banks cooperated with the "FED" and purchased dollars and held them off the market to drive up the price. This would be a VERY temporary "fix" at best.
-- Kent Shaw
Suffice to say... Dale is
Submitted by almandine on August 19, 2008 - 8:41pm.Suffice to say...
Dale is more of a cheerleader than an economist... or even a pundit.
Convert those dollars to something while you can, Dale... tis a hard rain that's gonna fall.
It's the over-valued dollar
Submitted by Warren on August 19, 2008 - 11:39pm.It's the over-valued dollar that's permitting wholesale export of our jobs to places with under-valued currency like China and much of Southeast Asia. I think I'd rather see the dollar slide a bit further and bring a few jobs back to the U.S.A. than buy an overly-cheap Chinese TV.
-Warren
Have no fear Warren - the
Submitted by almandine on August 20, 2008 - 12:37am.Have no fear Warren -
the dollar will be worthless soon... and the jockeying for jobs will seem surreal. Too bad the actual state of the union is much further gone than most imagine.
http://www.thecuttingedgenews.com/index.php?articl...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/91357-the-disconne...
http://www.leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-26-is-available!-LEAP-E2020-Summer-2008-Alert-July-December-2008-The-world-plunges-into-the-heart-of-the-global_a1800.html
It may get as bad as you
Submitted by Warren on August 20, 2008 - 4:08am.It may get as bad as you propose, but probably not quite. Somewhere in the middle the law of comparative advantage kicks in. (Buy farm land in Illinois.) Free markets work, if our governments would just let them be free. The U.S. can compete with anybody on a level playing field. Our government through its monetary policy would rather give us cheap Chinese TVs than jobs.
"It may get as bad as you
Submitted by almandine on August 20, 2008 - 10:09pm."It may get as bad as you propose, but probably not quite."
Hang on...
The dollar is in bearish
Submitted by Carl Nemo on August 20, 2008 - 2:17am.The dollar is in bearish territory. Extreme market volatility is part and parcel to bear markets. So this current rebound represents a signal to sell the dollar on ralleys.
In bull markets you buy strength on pullbacks to support and in bear markets you sell weakness on ralleys to resistance levels.
The real reason the dollar has seemingly had a ralley is that the Euro Union is experiencing its own economic downturn with Germany suffering a 3 percent pullback on its GDP. Germany along with France is the powerhouse that pulls the Euro Union markets with the other member nations simply as nothing but freight cars being pulled along. They also have a housing market debacle of their own to the tune of 250 billion Euro's of questionable to failing mortgages. Britain is in the same fix concerning mortgages, as is Australia and New Zealand.
Interestingly Canada did not get involved with such deadly speculative nonsense. Also Canada has had a treasury surplus for the past seven years and has been relentlessly paying down its public debt making it an attractive currency for bad times. They are also resource rich with the Chinese being major investors in that country.
So what we have here is misery seeking company. The world is moving into a longterm, "hard" recession/depression whatever you want to call it. This is actually good for the capital markets though because it reestablishes discipline in the markets and makes all fiat currencies more dear to borrowers. Inflation is deadly to all "faith based" currencies with only gold being a hard money safe haven.
Gold is pulling back due to the unwinding of long positions in the market by hedge funds along with many other commodities. Again, this is all good, but when folks no longer have jobs and can't pay their mortgages or retail credit debt, buy food or even borrow money it represents extreme hardship and recession.
There's no easy way out because this is only the beginning of a meltdown of the worlds banking system who's bottom line has been puffed by paper assets created out of thin air due to the G8 central bank pumping "funny money" into their respective economies to support rabid spending on the part of their consumer bases. Bubbles don't lasts forever. This is an example 17th century Dutch "tulipmania" gone bust.
I had to laugh the other night when I read the term "ninja" loans. These are the next class of American loans that are now crumbling bigtime; ie., "no income, no job, no asset" loans. Believe it or not unscrupulous lenders were loaning people money to purchase homes that had none of the above; ie., they were nothing but the worst class of "flippers" possible and in borderline neighborhoods on top of it. Once these homes are repossessed they will be stripped clean by "repo miners" of their fixtures, copper pipe, rugs and anything else that can be mined from the empty structures.
The international banking cabal has sown the wind, unfortunately alot of people that weren't directly involved with this debacle are going to reap the whirlwind with banking, brokerage and insurance firm failures "worldwide"...!
Carl Nemo **==
Carl, Your post is one of
Submitted by Warren on August 23, 2008 - 12:11am.Carl,
Your post is one of the best short overall assessments of the current situation that I have seen.
On the almost humorous "ninja loan" topic: I suspected a problem when a well-employed friend bought a new 1/2 mil house here in AZ, and across the street a Mexican family (no English, jalopy in the drive, no furniture, ping-pong table in the always-open garage) moved in across the street. I just kept thinking "No way. How? No way. How?"
-W-
(I only mean 'no obvious means to support the purchase of the house', not ethnic prejudice.)
Thanks Warren for the
Submitted by Carl Nemo on August 23, 2008 - 1:38pm.Thanks Warren for the compliment... : )
Carl Nemo **==